159,000 Jobs Lost in September. Worst Monthly Drop in Over 5 Years. Actual Unemployment Rate 10.2%

Unemployment rate held steady at 6.1 percent, but likely to a decline in those looking for work.

I heard an expert say recently that, if our current unemployment rate was calculated in the same manner as three decades ago, it would be over 10%.  And in fact, even the sparse data I've found indicates the same.

My own calculations compared with the Clinton years puts the number at 10.2 since 6% more working age men have dropped out of the workforce than during the mid nineties.  See post  "Clue to the Low Unemloyment Rate? 12% of men in prime work years not working or looking for work ".  Men are half the workforce (yes, I've checked that out) so I cut the 6% willfully unemployed to 3%.  I've also since learned that now 2.25% of working age women have dropped out of the workforce since 2000.  So we halve that and be generous to the Bush administration for another 1.1%. (Earlier we had heard that 1.75% of women had dropped out between 200 and 2003, then a 2005 report said that women had caught up to the 2000 number again, but a report this year noted that the drop out rate since 2000 among working age women is 2.25%.)

6.1%=3%+1.1%=10.2%.

I don't have time to go into how the Labor Department is fudging their numbers due to a model they concocted to make Bush look like an economic wonderkind for the 2004 re-election fight.  I'll try to repeat it later for newbies to this blog.

tags: unemployment rate  jobless rate  labor department  politics  

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