Coming NIE To Show that Surge Didn't Really Work. Who's Going to Tell McCain?

The purpose of the surge was to reduce violence in Baghdad.  Other reports have shown that much of that had occurred through sectarian division and the Sunni Awakening before the Surge had reached an "effective level".  But still the reduction of violence in the capital by massing troops in Baghdad was acknowledged to not be an end in itself, because it would never be certain and permanent unless the troops continued to mass in Iraq.

The surge had a purpose which was to allow the Iraqi leaders time and less violence so that they could concentrate on creating a fair and just Iraq.  This would need to include a nation that treats all of its people in the same way and which distributes it's resources or the money from the sale of it's resources equally.

The Iraqi government's part was not optional, or a game, maybe they should get it done or not.  It was a necessary move.  And they didn't do it.  Now that that surge is gone they have gone back to their old games. 

And now an NIE shows that all the gains of the surge and counter insurgency could be erased according to an AP report at the Mirami Herald "Lingering tensions could reverse progress in Iraq, U.S. intelligence analysis finds ".  It seems clear it's because the US government did not insist that the Iraqi government keep up it's part of the bargain.  

Excerpt report linked immediately above:

A nearly completed high-level U.S. intelligence analysis warns that unresolved ethnic and sectarian tensions in Iraq could unleash a new wave of violence, potentially reversing the major security and political gains achieved over the last year.

...

The findings seem to cast doubts on McCain's frequent assertions that the United States is "on a path to victory" in Iraq by underscoring the deep uncertainties of the situation despite the 30,000-strong U.S. troop surge for which he was the leading congressional advocate.

Now John McCain would love this if he becomes president.  His deal with Big Oil is to find some reason to make sure the troops are kept in Iraq for an indefinite time so that they are there to hold the nation down while Big Oil extracts the crude.

But don't forget that there was another plan that was promoted just as Bush started talking about "a surge".  It was to warn the Iraqi government that if they didn't start running their nation in a more equitable manner, our troops would leave and they could deal with all the consequences of that by themselves.  Remember how the Iraq Study Group decided on that plan.  Well, al Maliki says get out of Iraq within 16 months, The Iraq Study Groups said we should try at least pulling troops back to bases and see how the Iraqis manage their nation all alone. We should give it a try. 

There is no mother of invention of an equitable government better than necessity.  Or if they try managing with cruelty, greed, and graft, then they won't be any different than they are now, and the American taxpayer won't have to foot the bill anymore.

For more on Iraq see McClatchy search: Iraq .

tags: iraq  war  surge  sunni awakening  unemployment  malikioccured  

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