Read Floyd Norris's analysis "Job Data Passes Threshold Where Recessions Dwe ll" at the New York Times
Excerpt:
When the number of Americans out of work starts to rise sharply, a recession occurs.
By that token, the latest figure for unemployed workers is, at the least, a danger sign.
The Labor Department reported that in December some 7,655,000 people were unemployed, meaning they were both without a job and looking for one. That figure was 13.2 percent higher than the 6,760,000 figure in the previous December. In the past, a 13 percent annual rise has been the sign of a recession every time.
Norris is one of the good and honest business/economist writers.
I have another theory though.
Two mainstream sources have confirmed that the Bush administration folks have been cooking the numbers on jobs at least since 2004 (both feel that the deception is inadvertent). Now, remember after our last Washington holiday month, August 2007, the jobs numbers turned sour too. Remember though, after one month back at work our government analysts had revised that number for August so it looked much better and they made sure that the TV news media reported the change. That looks like the Bushies know exactly what they are doing. December is another month that our government officials are seldom on the job and possibly not working when they are in the office.
If, come the first week of February, that December jobs number is announced to have been a mistake, and it was really a much better month, then we know that the Bush administration is going to continue their lying about jobs. But will we know when we've really reached downturn shoals?
If the economy had ever been really good they wouldn't have had to lie about job creation in the first place.
This does show though, how we need to rely on good government accounting for planning on how to manage our economy. Unfortunately, we don't seem to be getting them from the Bush people.