Satellite Imagery Shows Baghdad Calmed More From Sectarian Cleanout Than From US Military Troop Surge

Though one presidential candidate claims that his idea of a troops surge is the most important reason that Iraq had become more peaceful now (try real hard not to think of John McCain -- can't do it can you?) a study of light in Baghdad shows that most of the relative calm in Baghdad had developed before the troop surge started.

A Reuters report says that analyses of light at night in Baghdad shows that Sunni areas emptied out after violence against them spurted after the bombing of the Mosque of the Gold Dome, thereby removing the population the Shiites that were the targets of the ethnic cleansing by violence and intimidation.

Excerpt:

"Essentially, our interpretation is that violence has declined in Baghdad because of intercommunal violence that reached a climax as the surge was beginning," said Agnew, who studies ethnic conflict.

Some 2 million Iraqis are displaced within Iraq, while 2 million more have sought refuge in neighboring Syria and Jordan. Previously religiously mixed neighborhoods of Baghdad became homogenized Sunni or Shi'ite Muslim enclaves.

"Our findings suggest that the surge has had no observable effect, except insofar as it has helped to provide a seal of approval for a process of ethno-sectarian neighborhood homogenization that is now largely achieved," Agnew's team wrote in their report.

Agnew's team used publicly available infrared night imagery from a weather satellite operated by the U.S. Air Force.

"The overall night light signature of Baghdad since the U.S. invasion appears to have increased between 2003 and 2006 and then declined dramatically from 20 March 2006 through 16 December 2007," their report said.

They said the night lights of Shi'ite-dominated Sadr City remained constant, as did lights in the Green Zone government and diplomatic compound in central Baghdad. Lights increased in the eastern New Baghdad district, another Shi'ite enclave.

Satellite studies have also been used to help document forced relocations in Myanmar and ethnic cleansing in Uganda.

The report notes:

The decrease in the night light signatures was not uniformly distributed across the city. The neighborhoods of East and West Rashid have experienced the greatest decline in night lights during the period of the surge. This pattern of declines appears associated with ethno-sectarian violence and neighborhood ethnic cleansing...

The professors found no similar decline in night light in four other large cities, Kirkuk, Mosul, Tikrit and Karbala.

In addition to the completion of sectarian cleansing, situations that have been reported as having helped calm Iraq by US military and analysis sources are:

• The Sunni Awakening which had been developed into an effective tool and had reduced violence , even before Bush publicly espoused the "surge" doctrine was a program by which the US paid Sunnis to oppose al Qaeda and police their own people.  Unfortunately the Shi'ites of Iraq are now dismantling the Awakening militia and sending some of the Sunnis to jail.We'll see how that goes I guess.
•  Aerial War Surge:  Many military sources count this as entirely different from the troops surge, using "surge" in the name just to get to the common denominator of the American mind. The targeting of insurgents via aerial attack they felt was particularly good for convincing first the Sunnis and finally the Sadr militia to lay down their arms.  Here is one of many reports on the subject.  For three months there was a report about the Aerial war surge and how it was more important than the troop surge somewhere everyday.
• As reported by Bob Woodward in his new book "The War Within" (without many details because of secrecy concerns but leaked ad infinitum for book publicity) a new kind of weapon that let the military pinpoint insurgent leaders with highly increased precision which has allowed attacks against the leaders to be very effective.  this has also been reported by other military analysts to possibly be some kind of device on drones or just enhanced intelligence

It which makes me wonder if the devil's deal that the Bush administration made with John McCain included Bush adopting McCain's "surge" plan (remember that came apparently from nowhere and conflicted with all the mainstream military advice) and then adding to the success of the Sunni awakening with the aerial surge to make McCain look good.  McCain sure has used the ''surge success"like a typical Republican BS campaign, and even tried to take credit for the success of the Sunni Awakening though he had nothing to do with that at all.  The "deal" mentioned above appears to have been struck in 2004 over whether McCain would accept the Kerry camp's offer of the Vice Presidential slot on the Democratic ticket which could have cost Bush his reelection.

tags: obama  mccain  bob woodward  

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