A secret deal being negotiated in Baghdad would perpetuate the American military occupation of Iraq indefinitely, regardless of the outcome of the US presidential election in November.
The terms of the impending deal, details of which have been leaked to The Independent, are likely to have an explosive political effect in Iraq. Iraqi officials fear that the accord, under which US troops would occupy permanent bases, conduct military operations, arrest Iraqis and enjoy immunity from Iraqi law, will destabilise Iraq's position in the Middle East and lay the basis for unending conflict in their country.
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Iraq's Prime Minister, Nouri al-Maliki, is believed to be personally opposed to the terms of the new pact but feels his coalition government cannot stay in power without US backing.
The deal also risks exacerbating the proxy war being fought between Iran and the United States over who should be more influential in Iraq.
The Independent says the deal would tie the hands of either US presidential candidate to continue occupying Iraq, and be a boost for John McCain, allowing Bush and McCain to declare victory.
The deal would keep US troops in Iraq on 50 permanent bases, and give complete immunity to all troops and private security personnel.
Middle East Expert Juan Cole notes in "Huge Explosion Rocks Baghdad, Kills 15 [18], Wounds 75; 3 US Troops Killed; Sistani wants Parliament to Approve Security Pact":
Former Iraqi finance minister Ali Allawi weighs in on the security agreement. He sets the current negotiations in the historical context of the humiliation Iraqis felt over the 1930 treaty imposed on them by the British Empire as it prepared to give Iraq nominal independence but retained bases and continued to intervene in Iraqi politics. Allawi is a voice of reason and wise US officials would pay special attention to what he has to say here.
A deal with the force of treaty is certainly had to get out of, but things will be done differently if Obama wins in November. He also explains how al Sistani hedges his approval of the security pact.
Democracy Now reports (referring back to the Independent, but I don't see that in this report. It must be in another one):
The Independent of London reports the United States is holding hostage some $50 billion of Iraq’s money in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to pressure the Iraqi government into signing an agreement to prolong the US occupation indefinitely.
Thaindian News report "US threatens to hold Iraqs 50bn dollars if it refuses to sign a secret deal " seems to have captured the Independent's one on Iraq's money in the US being embargoed.
Thank goodness for plagiarism.
Speaking of which, The Independent used to hide their reports after 3 days so in case they still do I went looking for usenet copies of the reports I referenced above.
Usenet copy: Revealed: Secret plan to keep Iraq under US control
Usenet copy: Ali Allawi: This raises huge questions over our independence